Based on the federal government’s newly released inflation data for May, the 2025 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could range anywhere from 2.57 percent to 3 percent, depending on the final numbers. Estimates by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) project the 2025 COLA to come in at 2.57 percent. This would be a substantially lower COLA for next year after the 3.2 percent COLA in 2024, notes Alex Moore, TSCL’s Social Security and Medicare statistician, who is a managing partner at Blacksmith Professional Services. Last month, the organization predicted that the 2025 COLA would be 2.66 percent. By comparison, Mary Johnson, who retired from TSCL but still serves as an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst and uses a different methodology than TSCL does, predicts a 3 percent COLA for 2025, slightly lower than the 2024 COLA. These latest estimates are based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) consumer price index (CPI) data for May, which was released June 12. Johnson notes that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index decreased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

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